AFC North: Projections Versus The Market
AFC North: Projections Versus The Market
The only division with four above-average teams, but the Ravens could be weaker than expected
Last week, I published the final numbers and methodology explanation for the Unexpected Points Power Rankings headed into Week 1 of the 2023 season. As often happens this time of year, I already tweaked them slightly to widen the projected power rankings, which represent the expected points differential for each team versus a league-average opponent on a neutral field.
None of the projections have moved by more than 0.5 points, but they’re now a little closer to the market range. As much as I trust the testing of my numbers, I’ve always found it useful to regress to the market. That said, I’m still generally lower/higher on the teams near the ends of the distribution of the market, reflecting what I believe is an appropriate level of uncertainty before the season even begins. As the season progresses and I become more confident in my projections, the expectations for top/bottom teams with spread out even further from league average.
I’m going to go through each division in a series of posts. Below I’ll compare my numbers to the market for the AFC North, and give context into why they differ (if they differ), with an emphasis on what are the most uncertain assumptions in the projections. Previous posts:
The AFC isn’t quite the strongest division in aggregate power ratings - that belongs to the ACF East - but it is the only division where all four teams project as above-average teams. Every divisional game will be a battle this season, making it tougher for any team in the AFC North to hit higher ceiling on their win totals.
A lot of the division’s strength can be explained at quarterback, with three top-10 options (Deshaun Watson is still at that level in my projections), and a promising second-year player. Kenny Pickett’s second-half rookie surge went a little under-the-radar as the Pittsburgh Steelers missed the playoffs, but his seasonal EPA ranking (22nd) was much improved after the team’s Week 9 bye (9th). This coincided with the Steelers going from 2-6 pre-bye to 7-2 post-bye. Normally, it’s a fool’s errand to place too much importance on seasonal splits, when the larger sample has more signal. But there might be a little something to that for rookie quarterback performance, especially when the majority of their reps end up coming during the more challenging winter months.
I don’t have a ton to say about the Cincinnati Bengals as my numbers mostly align with the market. Their relatively high ranking versus the market (third vs fifth) is more about a weaker view of other teams (mostly the Philadelphia Eagles) than being especially sold on the Bengals roster. In such a tough division, anything can happen, even the Bengals missing the playoffs (I have it at happening nearly a third of the time). I also assume markets will get closer to having the Bengals higher than others as we get full clarity on Joe Burrow’s injury status.
My rankings differ the most from the market with the Baltimore Ravens, having them as almost perfectly average. Looking at various media rankings, the Ravens could be even higher in consensus views than their 9th ranking in betting markets. I think my view of the Ravens might differ the most from media consensus with their offense, which I as average, largely in agreement with markets (14th).
It’s too early for me to assume that the Ravens switch at offense coordinator, and some receiving additions, will send the offense back to elite status. Outside of his outstanding 2019 MVP campaign, Jackson’s efficiency has merely been good, not elite. The markets are much higher on the Ravens defense (4th ranked) than my projections, which place them in the 8th-12th range.
I think the disconnect comes from less confidence in my numbers that the Ravens’ defense we saw in the second half of the year is more predictive than that of the entire season. The Ravens went from 24th in opponent EPA per play pre-Roquan Smith trade (pre-Week 9), to fourth thereafter. Smith is a great player, but I doubt he’s making that big of an impact on any defense. My Offseason Improvement Index had the Ravens losing the sixth most value this offseason largely due a weakening defensive pass rush. Justin Houston, Calais Campbell and Jason Pierre-Paul have all departed, after accounting for nearly 40% of the Ravens sacks in 2022.
I’m the most positive on the Cleveland Browns versus the market, a theme that continues from the second-half of last season. As mentioned earlier, my wider view of Deshaun Watson’s career gives him a strong projection, the team was much better fundamentally than their 2022 record, and I had them gaining the fifth most value in the offseason with key free agent additions. The markets have the Browns defense as below average (19th), but my numbers see a top-10 unit. Myles Garrett is a constant near the top of the list of most valuable defenders, the back-end of the defense is ready to step forward after lots of draft investments the last few seasons, and free agent additions on the front should give the Browns one of the stronger pass rushes.