AFC East: Projections Versus The Market

The Bills are one of the underrated top-tier teams heading into the season, and the Jets could fail to live up to the hype

The Jets could struggle to live up to the offseason hype

Last week, I published the final numbers and methodology explanation for the Unexpected Points Power Rankings headed into Week 1 of the 2023 season. As often happens this time of year, I already tweaked them slightly to widen the projected power rankings, which represent the expected points differential for each team versus a league-average opponent on a neutral field.

None of the projections have moved by more than 0.5 points, but they’re now a little closer to the market range. As much as I trust the testing of my numbers, I’ve always found it useful to regress to the market. That said, I’m still generally lower/higher on the teams near the ends of the distribution of the market, reflecting what I believe is an appropriate level of uncertainty before the season even begins. As the season progresses and I become more confident in my projections, the expectations for top/bottom teams with spread out even further from league average.

I’m going to go through each division in a series of posts. Below I’ll compare my numbers to the market for the AFC East, and give context into why they differ (if they differ), with an emphasis on what are the most uncertain assumptions in the projections. Previous posts:

• NFC East

• NFC North

• NFC South

• NFC West

The AFC East is the strongest division in the NFL, according to my aggregate power rankings. The worst team in the division, the New England Patriots, are the only below-average squad, and then only slightly so. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets all profile as top-10 teams, though perhaps in a different order than some expect.

The Jets have been the hyped team of the offseason, with the blockbuster trade for top-10 quarterback of all time Aaron Rodgers, the featured team on HBO’s Hard Knocks, and a dedicated segment on every sports-talk show to their latest happenings. This is decidedly the best Jets team in more than a decade, but there’s still a large gap between them and the Bills by my numbers, and even a slight gap with the un-hyped Dolphins.