AFC Analytical Offseason Grades: Free Agency and Trade Value Added

Projecting acquired player value for 2024 versus expectations based on contract and trade values

Since the league year officially began a few weeks ago, we’ve seen hundreds of releases, free-agent signings and trades that will substantially alter the results of the 2023 NFL season. Even before free agents were officially able to sign new contracts, deals had been informally announced, and a handful of trades had been agreed to in principle.

I’ve been tracking and estimating the collective effect of all of these moves with the Unexpected Points Improvement Index, deriving a points-based measure of gains and losses for every team versus their rosters at the end of the 2023 season. As of now, the Atlanta Falcons are projected to add the most in point differential this season with the addition of Kirk Cousins, while the Baltimore Ravens having lost the most with a number of their 2023 starters finding new homes. The gains and losses are, obviously, a reflection on the baseline for how good or bad a team was coming into the offseason, and how much free cap space they had to invest. The Ravens have lost a lot because their 2023 roster was so good and productive, falling a little from the highest perch.

Just because teams spent a lot, and improved the most off of a lower base projection, it doesn’t mean the spending was done wisely. In fact, the more you have to spend and the more needs you have, the easier it can be to overspend in free agency, the market where contracts have the highest premiums to player production.

In this analysis, beginning with AFC teams, I’m going to look more into how wisely teams spent their free agent dollar and trade capital the offseason from a cost-benefit standpoint. The cost for each acquisition is the player’s contract APY, with a premium added to account for surplus value lost in the case of players who were acquired via trades. I grabbed the contract values from OverTheCap.com.

You can find more information on how to quantify draft pick values in my previous analysis on draft value curves. For this analysis, I’m excluding quarterback additions, but will comment on them in the blurbs for each division.

The benefit side is my projections for value added over replacement level next season for each acquired player. The projections use players’ previous two years usage and production (NFL Plus/Minus metric) to project out the next year. We could project over multiple seasons and adjust for the length of contract, but realistically most free agent signings only have a substantial positive impact for a single season, and most contracts are structured to allow teams to release players after one year.

Grouping together all of the acquired players this offseason, we can see that there is a strong correlation between contract amounts in annual per year (APY) and my projected points over replacement. The slope of the curve is also less than one, meaning there are diminishing returns for each subsequent dollar spent for individual acquisitions. On average, a $5 million APY signing brings around 6.5 points over replacement, but moving up to $15 million of $20 million APY equates to less than the equivalent points.

A big part of what makes a good free agent signing isn’t the characteristics of the individual players as much as the dynamics of the market by position. As we found in pre-free agency research, certain offensive and defensive positions have stronger talent available in free agency. Those values align with what I labeled as “Tier 3” positions according to my surplus value draft curves: interior offensive line, linebacker, running back, tight end and safety.

For each AFC division, I’m going to display a plot of every acquired player by APY cost and points over replacement benefit, then aggregate the team totals for those acquisitions by APY spent (Total APY), points over replacement gained (Total +/-), points over/under contract expectation (Vs Exp), the team percentile for points over expectation per dollar spent (Value), and the team’s grade based on a combination of percentiles for total gain/loss and by dollar spent. I divided the percentile spectrum (0-100) to make the grade allocations an even distribution.

Only players with a 2024 APY over at least $1 million are included in the numbers, and a handful of players are missing due to the lack of contract information available at the time this was written.

AFC EAST: BILLS, DOLPHINS, JETS & PATRIOTS

The AFC was very busy this free agency period, with a combined 27 players acquired via free agency and trades. Typically, this would be a sign of poor expected performance, as worse teams from the previous year are looking to upgrade and reshuffle talent than those that were successful. But the AFC East looks like a relatively strong division for 2024, outside of the Patriots, who could bounce back with a hit on a quarterback selection near the top of the draft.

The Dolphins gained the most value in the division, gaining the third most versus expectation across the entire NFL. The Unexpected Points Plus/Minus projections are generally more optimistic for defensive backs, placing a lot of value on coverage, which is generally available at value in free agency. The signings of cornerback Kendall Fuller and safety Jordan Poyer were two the more valuable of the offseason, both coming in rather cheap. Linebacker Jordan Brooks should also help solidify coverage for the Dolphins at a low price tag.

The biggest improvement for the Jets this season will come from a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but they also made a handful of good moves in free agency and trades. Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith are big upgrades on the outsides of a previous bottom-5 offensive line, both coming at modest costs. But both are 33 years old, meaning they won’t be medium- or long-term solutions.

The Bills had to substitute lower-cost options at a number of positions to lower their cap burden, and they did so with success. Few are going wild for the signing of center Will Clapp or safety Mike Edwards, but they fill two spots lost at minimal APY and project as 2024 contributors.

The Patriots didn’t do major spending this offseason, and what they did wasn’t adding a ton of value by my numbers. KJ Osborn and Antonio Gibson probably have better reputations among football observers than their projections here, as both are seen as underperforming their modest contracts.

AFC WEST: CHIEFS, CHARGERS, BRONCOS & RAIDERS