Advanced Game Reviews: Championship Sunday

The Eagles and Chiefs will face off in the Super Bowl, most likely the matchup we deserve

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

PHILADEPHIA EAGLES vs SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Let’s face it, Kyle Shanahan was entering a world of pain no matter what decisions he made during the game. The 49ers ended up playing Josh Johnson, their fourth quarterback this season, when Brock Purdy left the game after their first drive, then Johnson was also forced out due to a concussion in the second half. The Eagles also won all aspects of higher variance play: +12.6 EPA in turnovers, +14.6 EPA on late downs and +9.2 EPA on penalties and special teams.