Advanced Game Review: Chiefs are the Super Bowl Champs

The Chiefs are the champs in a classic Super Bowl between two deserving teams

First off, apologies for the relative lateness of this post. I like to have them out the night of, but I couldn’t get my data to update for the game last night. Love to have someone to blame, but I’ll play the odds and assume it’s user error due to a bunch of updates I’ve run since the last game. With that, let’s get to the review.

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Despite the most impactful non-penalty play of the game being a fluke fumble-6 against the Eagles, the adjusted scores see the final score as slightly underrating the strength of the Chiefs victory. Both teams were highly successful offensively, but the Chiefs 61.1% success rate (percentage of plays with positive expected points added) was the third highest for any offense this season among 568 this season.

We’re talking about a greater than 99th percentile game from Patrick Mahomes and company on the biggest stage against a a defense that was viewed by many as one of the top units in the league. FWIW, my power rankings had the Eagles defense in the more modest, 4th-to-8th range after a weaker schedule in the regular and post seasons.

The Chiefs most surprising relative advantage was on the ground, averaging 0.15 EPA per designed run versus the Eagles at -0.07. Now, digging a bit into the context makes that less impressive, as the Chiefs were more dependent on big runs (48% success rate to 55%), as one Jerick McKinnon 14-yard carry on 3rd & 1 accounted for roughly half of the Chiefs EPA generated on the ground.

That said, even a 48% success rate is strong for designed runs, and Isiah Pacheco’s carries were biggest force of consistency in the run game with +1.8 EPA on 15 totes. The Chiefs pass rate was still over expectation versus most teams (+4%), but it was the third lowest number this season for the pass-happiest team in the NFL.

QUARTERBACK COMPARISONS

We witnessed two absolutely monster efficiency performances for the league’s MVP and MVP runner-up in this game. Mahomes did what he’s done all season: avoided sacks and other negatives, added value with strategic scrambles and picked apart the defense in the short-to-medium areas of the field. A historic performance by a player with a historic start to his career. I’ll have more to say on the proper historical context for Mahomes’ career later this week.

Jalen Hurts, on the other hand, continued to be the most valuable runner in the NFL, and trusted his superior weapons to stretch the field and make big plays. If we play the “excluding X play game”, Hurts’ efficiency would have been 0.35 EPA per play if we assume he doesn’t mishandle the ball on the fumble-6 play and simply takes a punt-inducing sack on 3rd & 5.

FOURTH DOWN DECISIONS

The fourth down decisions would have been a bigger story if the results flipped and the Eagles won a closely contested game. Andy Reid, per usual, didn’t take the only chance he had to gain significant win probability and instead choose a Harrison Butker field goal that doinked the post and cost the Chiefs 3.8 expected points (loss of field position plus miss), their most negative play of the game.

On the other hand, Nick Sirianni was taking win probability available left-and-right for most of the game. His decisions on clear fourth down calls netted the Eagles 9.2% win probability just in the decisions, 28% in the positive results.

Yet we still have to talk about Sirianni’s one *bad* decision by the numbers. On their own 32 yard line with three yards to go, down by one with 10:33 remaining, the Eagles punted the ball away and in that moment gave away the game. It wasn’t assured that the Eagles wouldn’t be able to stop the Chiefs again, but that’s what happened. And how surprised should we be that the best offense in the NFL could put together to great drives when it mattered most? Despite getting an extra point via 2-point conversion to level the game later, the Sirianni decision to punt took the game out of his offense’s hands to go and win.

It would have been highly controversial to go in that situation with more than a yard or two to gain and on their own side of the field with that much time remaining. But the power of #theanalytics is to show you a path to raising win probability in the non-obvious decisions. More than a few coaches with Jalen Hurts and a strong offense would have gone for it in those opportunities on the Chiefs side of the field, but Sirianni didn’t take the one chance to truly press his advantage of good decision-making. That decision cost the Eagles an estimated 3.3% win probability, and possibly the Super Bowl Championship.