2024 NFL Draft First-Round Analytical Review

Using consensus data from mock drafts and big boards, plus surplus value considerations, to analyze the first round of the NFL draft

We’ve finally gotten to and finished the first round of the NFL draft. There will be a ton of content hitting the streets in the next 12 hours to tell you the feeling and opinions on which teams made the best use of their draft capital.

In this post, I eschew the vibes-based analysis that dominates NFL media and judge the first round on explicit metrics that matter. I leveraged the excellent weighted mock draft data from Grinding the Mocks and consensus media Big Board data aggregated from Jack Lichtenstein on his beautifully website. In addition, I estimated the NFL value and subtracted the contractual commitment of each pick to determine the player’s surplus value, or value you’d have to pay in free agency over what the rookie contract demands. I went through this exercise earlier this month building a more useful Big Board using Sports Info Solutions draft grading and positional contract data from Over the Cap.

Let’s get to the data. The first section below has a table with a row for every pick. It has the pick number, the mock draft-based estimated draft position, the consensus big board ranking, and the estimated values of the prospect, his contract amount and the surplus value to the team. I also have a plot showing the differences better the actual pick numbers and the consensus opinions on mocks and big boards. Let’s get to the data.

TOP-10 PICKS OF THE ROUND

The “Value” number is my estimate for salary cap equivalent for the player based on positional value and historical trends for prospects taken at his draft slot. Contract is the annual amount due, and surplus value is the difference that the team gains acquiring the player through the draft.

Caleb Williams as the first pick of the draft at the most valuable position registers the top NFL value and contract value numbers. Perhaps surprising to some, his surplus value isn’t the highest, reflecting how rapidly contract costs decline as we get further into the first round.

That distinction goes to Michael Penix, who projects as very valuable, and at a budget price of only $5.7 million per season over the four years of his rookie contract. That said, the “Value” number doesn’t consider how much of a reach a selection was, and Penix certainly went a lot earlier than either mock drafts or consensus big boards had him forecast.

There’s a huge drop in surplus value going from the top-3 quarterbacks to Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4 overall. Harrison’s “Value” number comes from the historical performances of previous wide receivers selected early, who likely weren’t true generational prospects like the Ohio State wideout.

Offensive tackles like Joe Alt and JC Latham look much better than the receivers taken in the first round because that position has traditionally been the most valuable non-quarterback selection in the early first round. Latham was a much bigger reach according to the consensus metrics.

REST OF THE FIRST ROUND